Why did the prices fall in the 30 days before November 13?
This analysis was published with the positive vote of 4 people and the negative vote of 5 people from the research team of Mohammad Hossein Adib
The shares of 120 listed companies have decreased between 20 and 49 percent in the past month!?
The shares of 112 Nair stock exchange companies have decreased by less than 10%
A member of the research team has extracted a list of companies whose stocks have fallen
The loss to the shareholders is considered heavy
The purchase of petrochemicals was surprisingly profitable in the summer, but the price of PP as one of the important petrochemical items has decreased by about 30%.
The fall in the price of aluminum was about 28%
Among the economic activists who were dependent on production in September, the purchase of petrochemicals and aluminum was associated with a 30% profit
The dollar also fell sharply after reaching the ceiling of 19200, and those who entered the game of buying dollars from the beginning of October suffered heavy losses at some points.
Telegram made a mistake in predicting inflation one month before November 13
Four members of the research team analyzed the analyzes of 20 Telegram channels that were popular among Telegram viewers regarding the prediction of the dollar rate:
Only two channels predicted correctly and 18 channels had a serious error
18 channels had the assessment that there will be heavy inflation in the 30 days before November 13
Many people who lost in stocks, dollar and raw materials sector from 1st Mehr to 13th November were under the influence of these 18 channels.
Conclusion:
Ninety percent of Telegram channels made a mistake in predicting the time of inflation caused by the embargo, the peak of inflation caused by the embargo was from August 15 to the end of September.
Of course, there were two categories of losers:
1. One group that made a loss in the 45 days before 13 November were those who profited heavily in the month of Shahrivar, the profit of the month of Shahrivar was neutralized by the loss of the following 45 days, they made a profit of 30% in the month of Shahrivar and 30% in the following 45 days. loss
2nd category; There were depositors who started speculating from the beginning of Mehr; These were the depositors who felt that they had lost 70% of their property value due to the increase in the dollar rate (people with zero kilometers) and entered the game to stop the fall in property value, losing 30% of their property here. they gave
According to the research of the University of Tokyo, the losers in the Tokyo Stock Exchange were the last in 73% of cases. Are the last always the losers?
Mohammad Hossein Adib’s footnote on this analysis:
This analysis should not be considered the only factor for predicting inflation in the future. Nine other factors are also effective in predicting future inflation. Those who buy and sell based on only one factor proposed in this analysis, I will not be surprised if they go bankrupt. So, always make a decision based on ten factors and not one factor, never forget this
It is the algebraic sum of ten factors
@adibmh
This post is written by FaraDanesh1