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fall
Mohsen Renani
Abstract:
The fall of any company, organization or political and social structure has four stages; The “fall event” ends when the fourth stage occurs. The Islamic Republic has gone through the first three stages of the fall, I don’t know how long and to what extent it can prevent the realization of the fourth stage by resisting, violence and making the society more secure; But it can reduce the possibility of collapse by changing the procedure, before the fourth stage of the fall occurs with the “revolution from below”, through “revolution from above”.
Introduction:
I wrote this text about two months ago. Actually, I was hesitant to publish or just send it to the authorities. We all know that the country will eventually overcome the current situation, but all of our efforts should be for the government to choose the least expensive way for the transition of the country. Whether Iran goes towards the experience of Chile and South Africa or towards the experience of Libya and Syria depends first on the behavior of the government and then on the behavior of the society. Iran’s national interests require that both sides (government and society) try all the less expensive ways. That means revolutionary and violent transformation should be the last solution. It was with this in mind that I first sent the initial version of this text to Dr. Mohammad Javad Zarif and asked him if they could deliver it to the leadership. I still believe that if the officials face the reality naked, it will unconsciously affect their decisions. But after two months, he sent a message that his attempt was unsuccessful. It so happened that I decided to rewrite that writing with more explanation and detail and a more open expression, for public release; This is the text you are reading.
I am publishing this article so that on the one hand, the families of the dead and injured youths and protestors of the Mahsa movement will not be sad and know what a huge achievement their protest has achieved and in just a few months they have been able to achieve one of the four stages of the fall; And on the other hand, if there are still within the political system those who have passed the level of psychological excitement and fear and have the power to look rationally at the developments, see the reality more accurately and convey it to the power centers; Maybe the opportunity to return and convergence has not been lost yet. Because I believe that the opportunity for “reform from above” has been lost, but as long as the fourth stage of the fall has not occurred, the possibility of “revolution from above” cannot be ruled out. And of course, now it is only with “revolution from above” that “revolution from below” can be ruled out; Otherwise, “revolution from below” will occur naturally. The government should know not to complain and complain about the current stability of the situation, that its chance is less than it thinks; And to know that even if he calls this generation psychologically with harsh suppression methods, this generation has reached the stage of “existential hope” and can create new hopeful horizons at any moment, so instead of suppressing, suppressing and humiliating this generation, understand it and respect his words and talk to him.
The experience of a recent century tells me that if the Qajars had not fallen but had been reformed, and the revolutionaries instead of
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