Dirham pressure
On the verge of entering the IRGC into the terrorist list of the United States, there is a strong pressure, strange and with completely non-economic motives from the US Treasury on the exchange rate of the Iranian riyal-UAE dirham currency pair. Almost all treasury media tools are integral to this all-round pressure. To complete the analysis framework, the following points can be presented:
1⃣ Although all efforts are being made to attribute this increase to the terrorist economic means of the IRGC’s announcement, but in reality and in the scene of action, this action has no economic effect other than the Katsa ban. In fact, the destructive logic of spreading the Katsa sanctions was the end of the sanctions power that the treasury could display. The fact that a previous sanction is repackaged in a new situation and its horror is sold again to the public opinion of Iran (albeit by force and pressure in Dubai) is a sign of our weakness in explaining these matters (although it is clear and obvious). It is public opinion.
2. Americans know that there is a big war going on between the Central Bank of Iran and the US Treasury over the future of Iran’s financial presence in Iraq, and the Central Bank of Iran is making progress on this front (even if millimeter by millimeter). They are well aware that the financial context of Iraq is such that after the establishment of a part of Iran’s international settlement system on the Iraqi dinar, the UAE dirham will not play a central role in the financial structure of Iran, and this new role of the Iraqi dinar can also be sanctioned. There is no limitation.
3. Americans know that the central bank, with the establishment of a currency market, has taken a long step towards changing the method of calculating the exchange rate in the market, and sooner or later, the authority of the dirham in setting the rate will fade.
4. All these events lead the American side to the conclusion that they should not sit back for a moment in using the dirham to put pressure on the riyal because time is not in their favor.
5. In such a situation, the recommendation of intervention by simply increasing the market maker rate in bank exchanges and injecting dollars in Tehran is not necessarily a complete package. In the current program, it is clear that the percentage and speed of price change in Herat and Dubai are faster and ahead of Tehran because the pressure is from outside to inside.
6. Above all, the most important thing is that basically, the continuation of the current program of the Americans (artificial pressure on the dirham) to this extent without connection with economic realities cannot be long-term. More than facing a conflict arising from economic realities, we are facing a war of narratives.
This post is written by hash1444