How to overcome the crisis?!
The crisis situation means that the equations are out of the normal routine and having to make difficult and vital choices in a limited time.
In crisis situations, time is a fundamental and vital factor, and the basic task of crisis management is to minimize wrong choices in a short time and preserve resources and reduce damage.
Let’s review our conditions and situation with the arrival of corona disease in the country and what is happening.
So far, we have identified about 50 corona patients in the country and we have had about 10 deaths due to the fact that in comparison with the disease spread pattern in China, there are three cases;
1- That due to the change of the virus genome or the genetic difference of the host, the virus behaves differently and the fatality rate of the disease in our country has reached 20%, which is ten times its fatality rate in China.
2- That the virus has not changed its behavior, but we have not been able to identify a very large number of infected people and the actual number of patients is several times the number of identified people.
3- The sum of both the above states. It means that the lethality of the virus has increased and we have problems in identifying cases.
Due to the limited facilities and diagnostic kits, maybe only the passage of time can give us an answer, and of course, it may not be very useful to reach this answer at that time.
So what should be done?!
You should definitely find a solution that makes the most of the available time and buy more time at any possible price!
In my opinion, the best and most effective solution in the current situation is to close the maximum gatherings for a period of ten days in order to create an opportunity to check the behavior of the virus and accept the host.
In closing schools, if we don’t benefit, we won’t suffer any loss. With the accumulation of all kinds of unemployed graduates in our country, even at the highest levels, ten days of school closures will not bring the sky to the ground!
On the other hand, our priority is to control the disease in the first stage. For any reason, people do not trust what is announced through government authorities and are worried. In case of loved ones getting sick and witnessing the death of those around them, this deprivation of trust and epidemic of fear and of course anger will intensify. Even now, many people have refused to send their children to school without the order to close the schools. It is not bad if we remember the period of rocket rain in the cities, when we closed the schools with a much less threat, and today, apart from remembering the happy memories of that holiday Time, we don’t know any loss from that holiday!
Another important point is the personality of people in accepting crisis management. Making a wrong choice and human error is something that is possible for everyone, but in a crisis, we need people for management who make the least wrong choice in limited time. So it is clear that the crisis manager must have the necessary knowledge, knowledge and skills, but before that, he needs courage and boldness.
If the crisis manager is not brave and bold, he will not have the opportunity to use his knowledge and awareness, and of course, keep in mind that making the wrong choice at the moment is better than not choosing and inaction due to fear.
Once again emphasizing the need for courage and boldness as well as the science and skill of crisis management, I suggest to buy the necessary time to study the behavior of the disease, like what was experienced in China, all non-vital gatherings and trips including schools and universities. Sports competitions, celebrations, trips, non-emergency surgeries, religious and pilgrimage ceremonies, etc. to be closed for a period of ten days and after that he made a decision about the continuation of the path of fighting the disease with sufficient knowledge and knowledge.
March 5, 2018
Dr. Maziar Sattari
Member of the Board of Directors of Isfahan Medical System
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This post is written by DrPejmanHosseinpour