Iran’s economy and Corona (ten different views – first article)
The research team of Mohammad Hossein Adib (the members of the research team each have their own independent vote and the articles are not the views of Mohammad Hossein Adib, they only provide a space for all opinions to be expressed, it is not a forum channel for expressing the personal views of Mohammad Hossein Adib)
Iran’s economy is adapting to four components:
One – Stopping oil exports
Two- cheap oil
3- 20% more rainfall than the 50-year average for the second time, which has accelerated the revival of villages.
4- Corona virus which has led to a sharp decrease in the demand for non-personal goods and services.
With this exchange rate and with this level of rainfall, the agricultural sector is the first winner of this field.
In addition to villages, small village-oriented cities are also affected (usually small cities in Iran are located between a group of villages and provide services to these villages), these cities are also caused by the entry of the rural economy into the boom phase, in the next phase and enters the boom phase with a delay.
The sector of essential goods and services is at the peak of prosperity (essential goods and services are those goods and services that cannot be removed from people’s consumption basket under any circumstances)
Ninety percent of what Iranians buy is domestically produced. Previously, the income from society’s purchases went to China and countries like China, and China exported unemployment to Iran.
Until 1996, 90% of Iranian shoes came from abroad, this cycle created jobs for three categories; Shoe sellers in cities, bootleggers (shoe smugglers) and shoe manufacturers in China.
In the current situation, 95% of shoes consumed are domestically produced, the sale of shoes benefits even the most remote villages of Iran that produce livestock and its skin is used.
The
The trade sector related to imports from abroad has shrunk drastically and the domestic production sector has grown tremendously.
Simplified, the matter is one thing: domestic production is starting.
Iranian purchasing power enters the cycle of the domestic economy, the effects of this cycle over the course of three years attract those who were removed from the previous cycle (the Chinese cycle, paratroopers, domestic shopkeepers).
There are a group of winners and a group of losers, what is happening is not only the effects of the corona virus, the main part of what is happening is the effects of the interruption of oil exports, the effects of cheap oil have not yet appeared.
The fact that 90% of what an Iranian buys enters the domestic economy cycle and does not leave the country, this process is the entry of Iran’s economy into a new paradigm that will continue even after the containment of the Corona virus. An economy based on imports is turning into an economy based on domestic production.
Economic activists in Iran who do not recognize and deny this trend are condemned to be removed from the business cycle in Iran. Previously, for success in Iran, business culture was important. It requires economic activists with new thinking, the skills of 90% of economic activists in big cities lack the ability to use new conditions.
In ten articles out of ten different perspectives that are not usually presented, the impact of the above factors for channel members is explained specifically, the next nine articles will be daily or every other day.
@adibmh
This post is written by Ssmh22