Will the revival of the JCPOA open all the knots of the economy? Is it possible to be on the track of growth and development just by looking inside?
This table shows the ratio of foreign policy reform and economic policy reform, and synergy between the two.
1⃣ With both reforms, it is possible to join the global value production chain and be on the fast track of growth and development.
2⃣ With structural reform in the economy, but without canceling sanctions and expanding foreign trade, inflation will decrease and the economy will grow bit by bit, but the growth rate will be slow and limited. Besides, structural reforms in the economy would require surgery without anesthesia, and that would be painful. The proceeds of lifting sanctions can make the pain of structural reforms bearable.
3 ⃣ If the sanctions are lifted but without structural reforms in the economy, a certain amount of prosperity will increase from the place of increasing the export of oil, gas and derivatives, and then the import of foreign goods; As of 1995. But sustainable growth and development is not achieved. The problem of liquidity growth will not be solved, so inflation will not decrease sustainably.
4⃣ Without any correction, falling into the valley becomes inevitable. Therefore, both the reform of the economic policy and the reform of the foreign policy should be taken very seriously.
This post is written by amirsalimiQ