The time frame of the corona virus epidemic in Iran and the world
The world after Corona – the second report
Abbas Akhundi, Ali Hasanpour – Farvardin 99
How long does the home quarantine period last? Considering the weakness of the financial base and savings of more than six tenths of income, if the building is to last this long, how can we expect that this policy will be respected by the people? How long can companies cope with this situation? With this situation, can they fulfill their current and financial obligations to the bank or other parties to the contract? What do they do with their workers? How long do banks give? What is the impact of this phenomenon on unemployment or the economic life of companies? Can companies maintain their domestic and international markets? How can the society fulfill its moral duty towards the disabled people?
Where is the government in the story? For how long and to what extent can the government bear the losses of people and companies? From what source? Why are the accrual figures of governments so heavy? The US government has pledged 2200 billion dollars in addition to 4000 billion dollars that it has allowed the central bank to intervene in the market. These two figures for the European Union are 750 billion and 3000 billion euros? What image do they have of the size of the crisis? The figure of 75 thousand billion tomans predicted by the Iranian government, even considering the size of the population and economy, is very small compared to these figures. Why? Is it rooted in lack of resources? Does it go back to institutionalized beliefs in Iran? Or is the perception of Iranian authorities different from the depth of the crisis and the time period to reach safety? And dozens of other questions.
It is not possible to answer the aforementioned questions unless we have a picture of the period of time that this crisis will last. everything; Among the counter policies and post-corona policies, it depends on the length of time to reach safety. If it was possible to control the spread of the virus within two to three weeks, its effects would be like a sneeze in the economy and everything would return to its original state immediately. But now this window is closed on the world. The template hypothesis in Iran and the world is the theory of collective safety. This means that, according to the experts of epidemiology, until about two-thirds of the world’s people are affected by this virus, of course, with different severity and weakness, the world will not have access to reliable immunity; But does this mean abandoning society to reach this level of infection? Definitely not. Basically, the philosophy of the concept of collective immunity aims to protect vulnerable people against this disease. The policies that countries such as Germany have taken are to protect vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick with strict quarantines until the end of the public outbreak and collective safety is achieved. Now that is the case, in what period of time will the world reach this epidemic? What is Iran?
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