What should be considered when buying dollars?
With the positive vote of five out of nine members of Mohammad Hossein Adib’s research team
The price of the dollar depends on the supply and demand of the dollar:
Demand to buy dollars:
1. Buying dollars at free rate for importing goods is 10% in 2019 and buying dollars for service sector (such as selling assets and converting to dollars for immigration, traveling abroad, etc.) is 30% in 2019.
2⃣ Buying dollars with the motive of speculation or buying foreign currency with the motive of maintaining asset value is the most important demand in the market for buying dollars and it is this demand that brings the currency to this rate and in the near future speculative demand determines the exchange rate. Slow, but game changing
in buying currency for speculation; There is something called the ceiling of inflationary expectations, that is, the exchange rate reaches a point where speculators conclude that the dollar rate will not become more expensive, so at that point the number of sellers of dollars exceeds the number of buyers of dollars, and speculators The losers are mostly sellers of dollars and the dollar falls
Speculators did the same process in Tehran housing, speculative money entered the housing sector and the price of housing increased by 80%, and then they left the housing market en masse. In October, only 9,000 residential units were sold in Tehran, while there are 3,500,000 residential units in Tehran, something close to zero, speculators have left Tehran’s housing market.
Part of the capital of speculators entered the stock market in the last two months, the prices increased, in the last two weeks some stocks exceeded the inflation expectations, so many people sold such stocks, which resulted in hard falls, although there are few good stocks. They were not the ones who showed their worth in this wave
The same story that happened with housing and some stocks will sooner or later happen with currency, that is, the exchange rate will exceed inflation expectations, and at that point speculators will leave the currency market.
At that point, 30 billion dollars hidden in houses will be offered for sale
If every Iranian family has 100 grams of gold, Iranian families have gold equivalent to 100 billion dollars
Iranian families together have more than 130 billion dollars in gold and currency, and the market has a purchasing power of 200 million dollars per day
The speculator raises the exchange rate to the extent that he becomes its seller. The next day, the exchange rate is determined based on the consumer demand for dollars and the supply of the currency.
In the mythology of the kingdom; He gave the child’s name Rostam and then threatened to stop his voice
Mohammad Hossein Adib’s footnote on the above analysis:
In buying and selling currency, in addition to the mentioned factor, 9 other factors should be taken into account and a decision was made based on the algebraic sum of 10 factors. Economic decisions based on one factor lead to bankruptcy.
@adibmh
This post is written by FaraDanesh1